| ID | Status | Window | What we said | What today's evidence shows |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL-2026-05-06-01 | OPEN | 6–13 May | ELN Eastern Front sustains Arauca-corridor leverage signal; ≥1 communiqué OR kinetic OR exchange counter-offer in 7 days | 5 May trigger event materialized: ELN announced “juicio revolucionario” with multi-year sentences against four hostages. Counter-signal: ELN simultaneously released Brenda Carrascal Carvajalino in Catatumbo. Drivers strengthening; outcome window starts 6 May. |
| CL-2026-05-06-02 | OPEN | 6–13 May | Bloque Occidental Jacobo Arenas retaliation on Panamericana Cauca-Nariño | Indicator-raise observed: alias “El Mono” (named finance ringleader, drone procurement role) captured 5 May in Santander de Quilichao. Second named-commander capture inside the corridor within 72 hours of the 3 May Cajibío attack tightens the retaliation window. Probability revised toward upper edge of likely band. |
| CL-2026-05-06-03 | OPEN | 6–13 May | ELN Nororiental kinetic tempo continues in Catatumbo | Indicators raising: Army dismantled ELN cocaine laboratory in Durania (527 kg seized) and an armed clash in El Carmen left one police officer wounded, both 5 May. Probability moves toward upper edge of roughly even chance band. |
| CL-2026-05-06-04 | OPEN | 6–9 May | Avenida Caracas TransMilenio corridor service disruption recurrence | Drivers strengthening: 5 May saw a second consecutive day of demonstrations on Calle 72–76 with Avenida Caracas trunk closed for hours; one SITP bus vandalized on camera; closures from Calle 26 to Calle 76 implemented. Recurrence within window probability remains likely. |
| Kind | Severity | Item |
|---|---|---|
| NEW | HIGH | ELN announces “revolutionary trial” against four hostages held in Arauca. Eastern Front communiqué imposes prison sentences of up to 60 months on two CTI investigators and two police officers held since mid-2025. MinDefensa, Defensoría del Pueblo and President of the Supreme Court rejected the act publicly. |
| NEW | HIGH | Captured: alias “El Mono” / “Wilmer” in Santander de Quilichao, Cauca. Asserted finance ringleader of Bloque Occidental Jacobo Arenas under Iván Mordisco; named driver of drone-delivered explosive procurement, including munitions used in the 3 May Cajibío attack (20 dead). Operation conducted by Comando Contra el Narcotráfico with Fiscalía, fines for extradition. |
| NEW | HIGH | Captured: alias “Negro Uber” in Florencia, Caquetá. Asserted ringleader of Comandos de Frontera (Segunda Marquetalia bloc); investigators allege nine years of activity coordinating drug trafficking and recruitment. |
| NEW | HIGH | Captured: alias “El Alex” / Jorge Espinoza Peña at El Dorado airport. Mexican national, asserted financial and logistics operator for the Sinaloa Cartel, requested in extradition by the United States for fentanyl trafficking. Auto-HIGH on El Dorado access corridor protocol applies. |
| NEW | MED | Liberation: Brenda Felicita Carrascal Carvajalino, kidnapped by ELN October 2025. Released 5 May in Catatumbo through Defensoría del Pueblo, Catholic Church and UN Mission accompaniment. The same actor that announced the “trial” in Arauca released a hostage in Catatumbo on the same day — a calibrated dual signal we flag for analytical attention. |
| ESC | HIGH | Avenida Caracas TransMilenio corridor closure escalates. Second consecutive day of student-driven demonstrations after Monday's violent confrontation between TransMilenio guards and Universidad Pedagógica students. Trunk closures Calle 26 through Calle 76; SITP bus vandalized; rotating service detours via Carrera 30 and Carrera 10. |
| NEW | HIGH | Mine explosion in Sutatausa, Cundinamarca (mine La Trinidad / Carbonera Los Pinos). Nine miners confirmed dead, six rescued. Agencia Nacional de Minería (ANM) had inspected the site 26 days prior and issued safety recommendations; investigation opened. |
| NEW | MED | Bus rollover on Girardota–Barbosa axis (Antioquia). Metro-feeder service vehicle, approximately 30 injured. Autopista Norte affected northbound out of the Aburrá valley. |
| NEW | MED | Flooding cluster in northern Valle del Cauca. Versalles and La Unión: La Mina and Aguas Lindas creeks overflowed; approximately 80 homes affected in Versalles, 500 people affected in La Unión; access roads cut by mudslides. |
| CONT | HIGH | Popayán “Monster Truck” tragedy fallout continues. Driver reportedly fled Popayán; organizing company issued condolences; Cauca authorities investigating regulatory chain. Three dead (including two children), more than 40 injured. Auto-HIGH Panamericana corridor protocol active. |
| NEW | MED | Clínica Medical suspends services at four Bogotá sites. Operator cites approximately COP 300 billion in EPS receivables. Liga contra el Cáncer Seccional Bogotá separately suspending oncology services over COP 4 billion in arrears. Tibanica bridge agreement Bogotá–Soacha signed (COP 118 billion investment) on the same political news day. |
| NEW | MED | Politics: Luis Gilberto Murillo reportedly preparing to withdraw candidacy and join Iván Cepeda's campaign. Multi-source convergence (La Silla Vacía, Noticias RCN, El Espectador). Public announcement expected Wednesday 6 May. Campaign calendar volatility implications for next 24-48 hours. |
| NEW | MED | Politics: Senator Mauricio Gómez Amín resigned Senate seat and Liberal Party. Will serve as debate chief for Abelardo De la Espriella's campaign. |
| NEW | MED | Tropical wave (onda tropical) approaching Colombian Pacific and Andean regions. IDEAM forecasts intensified rain and electrical storms across Pacific, Andean, Amazon, southern Caribbean and western Orinoco regions for the first half of the week. |
| NEW | MED | Triple homicide in Yotoco, Valle del Cauca. Three family members killed at La Regina, on a property under SAE administration with an active 500-family informal settlement; firearms and bladed weapons used. Auto-HIGH Panamericana protocol applies. |
| DE | LOW | Ecuador reduces “security tax” on Colombian imports from 100% to 75% effective 1 June. Following diplomatic engagement; commercial-flow easing for Ipiales-Tulcán border axis. Diplomatic-track de-escalation. |
| Bogotá | Medellín | Cali |
|---|---|---|
| Private vehicles: No circulation for plates ending 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (06:00–21:00, Mon–Fri). Taxis: No circulation 1–2 (05:30–21:00). Special transport: Plates 1–2 restricted (05:30–21:00). Source: Radio Santa Fe and @BogotaTransito 5 May rotation. |
Not surfaced in this cycle's collection (sources attempted: Secretaría de Movilidad de Medellín, @SttMed). Verify with Secretaría before deployment. Daily rotation changes. | Not surfaced in this cycle's collection (sources attempted: Secretaría de Movilidad de Cali, @SecMovilidadCali). Verify with Secretaría before deployment. Daily rotation changes. |
HIGH Avenida Caracas trunk (Calle 26–Calle 76) under recurrent demonstration-driven closure. Carrera 7/Calle 112 and Calle 74/Avenida Caracas additional friction points. Carrera 7/Calle 28 (Universidad Pedagógica/Colegio Superior de Cundinamarca) student protest expected to recur.
MED El Dorado access auto-HIGH today: extradition operation (alias “El Alex”) at Terminal 2 elevated police footprint and security-screening delays.
MED Avenida Centenario / Calle 13: cluster of cargo-vehicle rollovers and breakdowns through morning rush.
LOW Cortes de luz and water outages: localized in Santa Fe / Suba / Soacha – per Enel and Acueducto schedules 6–7 May.
HIGH Girardota–Barbosa axis (Autopista Norte): bus rollover with approximately 30 injured 5 May; expect investigative cordon and northbound delays through 6 May morning.
MED Puente La Limona (It&agüí–San Antonio de Prado axis): subsidence and settlement; community traffic delays.
MED Comuna 8 / Boston / Los Ángeles: pavement subsidence cluster (second event in two weeks per El Colombiano).
LOW Antioquia rural Suroeste cocaine seizure (448 packages) does not directly affect urban mobility but elevates highway-checkpoint posture on Medellín–Quibdó / Medellín–Turbo axes.
MED School-wall collapse at sede Pablo Neruda (comuna 16) under investigation; secondary impact on local Carrera 39 area.
MED Yotoco rural (Valle): triple homicide on La Regina property — police presence northbound from Cali on the trunk to Buga, possible road-control delays.
LOW Routine pico y placa rotation in effect (digits not surfaced this cycle).
Five active partial-closure points overnight per Coviandina (paso bidireccional K18+300–K19+000; reduced lane K17+500–K18+300; right-lane closure K36+500–K37+100; reduced lane K43+250; reduced lane K65+700 due to vehicle rollover at 11:55 a.m. 5 May; toll lanes 6–7 closed at Naranjal). Brief light rain conditions reported through morning. MED
Cajibío attack (3 May, 20 dead) under active retaliation-watch following 5 May capture of alias “El Mono.” Two FARC-aligned dissident explosives experts captured separately in Cauca on 5 May per Caracol. Ongoing anniversary indicator: Cajibío was the trigger event 7-10 days ago. HIGH
Army-ELN kinetic tempo continued 5 May: Durania cocaine laboratory destroyed (527 kg), El Carmen station harassment fire (hostigamiento) wounded one officer. Dual signal: ELN released Brenda Carrascal Carvajalino (kidnapped October 2025) the same day. Recruitment-of-minors signal continues per “Dayana” case (15 years, ELN-recruited then transferred to FARC dissident faction in Tibú). HIGH
Tibanica bridge agreement signed 5 May (Bogotá–Soacha conurbation, COP 118 billion). Magdalena Medio: Ecopetrol and Parex announced US$ 250 million investment in Casabe / Peñas Blancas / Llanito; localized labor-attraction effect. Suroeste antioqueño cocaine seizure (448 packages) elevates highway-checkpoint footprint on the Medellín–Turbo branch. LOW
Ipiales–Tulcán: Ecuador security-tax reduction announced for 1 June (100% to 75%) easing commercial-flow friction. Cucutá–San Antonio: capture of two kidnapping victims (one Peruvian national, group Tren de Aragüa; one common-criminal kidnapping) by Gaula 5 May; routine. Maicao–Paraguachón: single-source Telegram report of armed roadblock on Riohacha–Maicao Troncal del Caribe pending verification. MED
Capture of alias “El Mono” (named Bloque Occidental Jacobo Arenas finance ringleader) and two further explosives experts in Cauca on 5 May. Triple homicide in Yotoco rural property under SAE administration. Capture of alias “Wilson” (Tumaco subringleader of FARC-aligned dissident faction) in Nariño per MinDefensa late-cycle communiqué. Five “Los Espartanos” tractomula-hijack ringleaders captured in Buenaventura. HIGH
Sustained kinetic tempo across multiple municipalities. ELN cocaine lab destroyed in Durania; armed clash in El Carmen with one officer wounded; minor-recruitment cycle continues with cross-faction transfers documented. HIGH
ELN Eastern Front “revolutionary trial” announcement raises hostage-leverage signal; Gobernador del Casanare and Director General de Policía announced reinforcement plan for the department on 5 May. Saravena–Arauquita–Tame axis remains under standing watch. HIGH
Single-source Telegram report (@LaColombiaOscuraa, F-6 unverified pending corroboration) of armed roadblock on Riohacha–Maicao Troncal del Caribe; not yet corroborated by Policía Guajira. Sandra Nogales (Junta de Acción Comunal vice-president) assassinated in Bello, Antioquia 5 May; community-leader attacks pattern consistent with prior 12 months. Asesinato (homicide) cluster in Yotoco SAE-administered property unrelated to armed-group conflict per preliminary Policía Valle assessment. MED
IDEAM forecast through end of week: tropical wave (onda tropical) approaches, with intensified rain and electrical storms across Pacific, Andean, Amazon, southern Caribbean and western Orinoco regions. Late-afternoon 5 May: convective cells generated heavy rain over Chocó, occidental Antioquia, Valle del Cauca, southern Santander, southern Casanare, Meta, southern Guaviare, occidental Vaupés, northern Córdoba and northern Cesar.
Compound risk: the Andean piedmont Vía al Llano corridor and the Cauca–Nariño Pacific slope are both in the rainfall path. Versalles and La Unión flooding cluster (5 May) preview the corridor effects.
Campaign volatility ahead of Wednesday 6 May: Luis Gilberto Murillo reportedly preparing to withdraw candidacy and announce alignment with Iván Cepeda; multi-source convergence (La Silla Vacía, RCN, El Espectador). Mauricio Gómez Amín resigned Senate seat and Liberal Party to chair debate strategy for Abelardo De la Espriella. GAD3 polling firm withdrew from publishing Colombia electoral surveys, citing the Comisión Técnica of Law 2494 of 2025 as “impossible” to comply with operationally. Iván Cepeda publicly denounced unspecified armed-group pressure to influence first-round elections.
Labor / sectoral: Tayrona national park: tourism-transport workers' armed strike (paro armado in the labor sense, not armed-group sense) following death of a transport worker. Magdalena–La Guajira axis Cañaveral blockade reported. Clínica Medical four-site service withdrawal in Bogotá; Liga contra el Cáncer Seccional Bogotá oncology suspension; Coosalud EPS extraordinary shareholders meeting ordered by Superintendencia. The cumulative health-system signal is consistent with a Q2 services-availability degradation we have flagged in prior cycles.
Diplomatic: Ecuador-Colombia security-tax reduction (100% to 75%) signed for 1 June implementation; ONDCP US strategy publication continues to pressure Colombia on coca-cultivation reduction.
ACLED anniversary registry unavailable this cycle (collector failure: registry.json not found at curated path; flagged for next-cycle restoration). Manual recall: 8 May is the one-year mark of two CTI investigators' kidnapping by ELN in Arauca — the date itself is a probable communiqué trigger for ELN propaganda.
We assess the ELN Eastern Front's public “revolutionary trial” of two CTI investigators and two police hostages held since mid-2025 is a calibrated leverage move ahead of the 31 May first-round vote, not a precursor to execution; sustained Arauca-corridor friction over the next week is likely (55-80%, medium confidence). Three Tier-2 outlets and the Defensoría converge on the announcement; the parallel ELN release of Brenda Carrascal Carvajalino in Catatumbo on the same day reads as a deliberate dual signal. The strongest counter-case — that the trial framing is a precursor to execution rather than leverage — rests on the explicit condemnatory language, but ELN's historical pattern uses hostages as multi-year leverage rather than as immediate-execution targets; we judge precursor-to-execution unlikely unless proof-of-life lapses beyond 14 days. If this call misses, the most likely cause is window calibration: ELN tempo on hostage signaling routinely runs 14-21 days, and a 7-day window may close before the next public signal.
We judge the 5 May capture of alias “El Mono” (asserted finance ringleader and drone-procurement coordinator) materially raises the probability of armed-group retaliation on the Panamericana between Cali and Popayán; an attributable IED, drone-delivered explosive, armed clash, or 4+ hour corridor closure within 7 days is likely (55-80%, medium confidence). The capture follows the 3 May Cajibío attack (20 dead) within 48 hours, compressing the typical 7-10 day post-capture retaliation window. The strongest counter-case is that government reinforcement of the Panamericana suppresses incidents in the immediate term; historically, however, reinforcement lags incidents by 7-10 days. If this call misses, the most likely cause is actor surprise: the faction may shift to softer non-corridor targets — municipal officials, transmission infrastructure — that would not satisfy the outcome wording.
We estimate the 5 May Durania cocaine-laboratory destruction (527 kg seized) and the El Carmen station harassment fire (hostigamiento) signal that ELN-Nororiental kinetic tempo will continue through the next week; an attributable IED, armed clash producing civilian casualty, or community displacement above 50 households is at roughly even chance (45-55%, low confidence). The Brenda Carrascal Carvajalino release the same day complicates the picture, suggesting Central Command tactical flexibility. The strongest counter-case is that the El Carmen clash was a tactical local event without campaign weight; we retained MEDIUM-band probability because the underlying ELN-Nororiental capability has not changed and the laboratory raid is a typical retaliation trigger. If this call misses, the most likely cause is window calibration; ELN-Nororiental tempo runs roughly two-week pulses and 7 days may close before the next signal.
We assess the Avenida Caracas TransMilenio corridor (Calle 26–Calle 76 segment) is in a recurrent demonstration-disruption cycle following Monday's violent guard-student confrontation and Tuesday's second-day demonstration with vandalized SITP bus; service interruption exceeding 60 minutes or a violent station confrontation producing injuries is likely (55-80%, medium confidence) within the 6–9 May window. The pattern matches the 2024-2025 Caracas trunk recurrence pattern; police negotiated stand-down would absorb energy for 24-48 hours but historically does not last. The strongest counter-case is that the trunk is now operationally over-watched following Tuesday's incident; we judge that operational tempo is sustainable for 24-48 hours but rarely longer. If this call misses, the most likely cause is collection gap: a low-magnitude service interruption under 60 minutes may not surface in our overnight collection.
We estimate the convergence of the IDEAM tropical-wave (onda tropical) signal with five concurrent active partial-closure points on Vía al Llano (Coviandina K17–K65) makes a closure exceeding 4 hours or a landslide event causing injury or property damage on the K0–K85 segment within 7 days likely (55-80%, medium confidence). The corridor has historically failed under saturation rainfall events compounding ongoing geotechnical works. The strongest counter-case is that Coviandina's active monitoring and rapid-response posture absorbs marginal events; we judge that capacity sufficient for 1-2 day events but not for sustained 4-7 day rainfall windows of the type now forecast. If this call misses, the most likely cause is window calibration: rockslide cycles on Vía al Llano typically lag rainfall onset by 24-72 hours, and a 7-day window may capture only the early portion of the response curve.
KJ-1. We assess the 5 May ELN “revolutionary trial” in Arauca and the simultaneous Brenda Carrascal Carvajalino release in Catatumbo represent a coordinated dual signal designed to leverage both ends of the negotiation table ahead of 31 May; sustained Arauca-corridor friction over the next 7 days is likely (55-80%) [HIGH confidence in the dual-signal interpretation; MEDIUM in the window].
KJ-2. We judge that the capture of alias “El Mono” (5 May, Cauca) tightens the post-Cajibío retaliation window such that an attributable kinetic incident on the Panamericana between Cali and Popayán within the next 7 days is likely (55-80%) [MEDIUM confidence].
KJ-3. We estimate Bogotá's Avenida Caracas trunk (Calle 26–Calle 76) faces continued demonstration-driven service disruption through 9 May, with recurrence likely (55-80%) [MEDIUM confidence].
KJ-4. We assess the IDEAM tropical-wave signal compounded against five active Vía al Llano partial-closure points makes a corridor closure exceeding 4 hours or a landslide event within 7 days likely (55-80%) [MEDIUM confidence].
KJ-5. We judge that the cumulative EPS-arrears signal (Clínica Medical four sites, Liga contra el Cáncer Seccional Bogotá, Coosalud extraordinary shareholders meeting) marks acceleration of Bogotá healthcare safety-net degradation; further cascade closures within four weeks are likely (55-80%) [MEDIUM confidence], with material implications for expat and corporate-traveler medical-access planning.
| Source | Status | Items | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| feedly_morning_trm_public | partial | 1631 | 108/111 feeds succeeded; failed: Emily Hart (HTTP 403), International Crisis Group (HTTP 403), Policía Nariño (HTTP 404). Bootstrap of seen-index treated all 1631 as new this cycle. |
| imap_cimarisk | partial | 15 | 8 new (Google Alerts batch and brief notification). |
| webfetch_ani | success | 1 | ANI portal fetched. |
| webfetch_cancilleria | success | 1 | Cancillería newsroom index fetched. |
| webfetch_coviandina | success | 1 | Concession-operator portal fetched. |
| webfetch_presidencia | success | 1 | Presidencia prensa portal fetched (JS-rendered fallback). |
| webfetch_telegram_ejercito | success | 4 | Ejército Nacional Telegram channel. |
| webfetch_telegram_pasa_bogota | success | 10 | Bogotá incident-reporting channel. |
| acled_baseline | BLOCKED | 0 | FileNotFoundError: registry.json not found at curated path. Anniversary registry must be restored next cycle. Manual fallback applied for known anniversaries. |
| calendar_sources | BLOCKED | 0 | Calendar-Driven-Sources-Master.xlsx not present in cloud filesystem. Restore on Mac and commit. |
| humint_log | BLOCKED | 0 | HUMINT-Intake-Log.xlsx not present in cloud filesystem. Restore on Mac and commit. |
| ledger | BLOCKED | 0 | Scheduled-Disruptions-Ledger.xlsx not present in cloud filesystem. Restore on Mac and commit. |
| rss_emily_hart | failed | 0 | HTTP 403 on direct RSS fetch; the same source reported failed in feedly aggregate. |